Category: BUSINESS

Mumbai: The Indian benchmark indices opened lower on Monday amid poor Q3 earnings and weak global cues in the week of Union Budget 2025-26.

Sensex was trading at 75,756.52, down 433 or 0.57 percent at around 9.32 am while the Nifty 50 dropped below 23,000 at 22,963.75, or 128.45 points down (0.56 per cent).

However, the stock market appeared to pare losses as the day progressed.

Britannia, HUL, ICICI Bank and Dr Reddy’s Labs were among gainers on the Nifty, while losers were HDFC Bank, Infosys, NTPC, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco, Trent and Axis Bank. Except realty, all other sectoral indices were trading in the red,

According to experts, from a technical perspective, the market is consistently facing selling pressure at higher levels and is forming lower tops on daily charts, which is negative.

The strategy should be to reduce weak long positions below 22,950 levels, however, during the week if it falls to 22,600, then we should look for buying select stocks with a medium to long-term view,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head, equity research, Kotak Securities.

The Indian equity markets started on a subdued note as global uncertainties and weak domestic cues weighed on investor sentiment.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, adding pressure to the markets. FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 2,658 crore last Friday, reflecting their cautious approach amid global uncertainties.

Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some relief, with net purchases of Rs 2,450 crore, though it wasn’t enough to offset the broader weakness.

“Overall, the markets remained under pressure throughout the session, with investors exercising caution ahead of key global and domestic events. Traders are advised to closely monitor price action at critical support and resistance levels before making any significant moves in the coming days,” said Mandar Bhojane, equity research analyst, Choice Broking.

The Indian stock market outlook for this week will be guided by the Union Budget, Q3 results and global economic cues such as crude oil price, dollar index and US GDP growth rate data.

The Union Budget will be presented in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1.

New Delhi: India’s trade with the USA is on the upswing with robust growth being recorded in December in the bilateral exports of the two countries despite the disruption in shipping due to geopolitical tensions.

India’s merchandise exports to the USA shot up by 8.5 per cent to $7 billion in December, according to the official figures.

Similarly, US exports to India during December surged by close to 10 per cent to $3.77 billion. India’s top imports from the US included petroleum, petroleum products, coal, coke, and electric machinery and equipment.

A senior official pointed out that this shows that India is also providing a market for American goods and there is a two-way relationship in which both countries are benefiting from the gains of trade.

The bilateral trade between India and the US during the first nine months of the current financial year (April-December) 2024-25 touched 93.4 billion which comes close to the figure for India’s trade with China at $94.6 billion during this period.

India’s electronic exports to the US jumped by a robust 27.4 per cent to $22.5 billion in April-November of 2024-25, from $17.66 billion during the same period in 2023-24.

There has been continuous growth in the sector over the last two years as electronics exports from India to the US jumped over two-fold year-on-year to $6.6 billion during January-September 2023, industry body ICEA has said.

This jump in electronic exports has taken place after the sanctions imposed against China towards the fag-end of President Donald Trump’s first administration which was continued under Joe Biden.

With US companies such as tech giant Apple looking to set up supply chains outside China, India with its large domestic market has emerged as an alternative destination.

India’s electronics exports to the US increased by $7.9 billion, accounting for over 62 per cent of the increase in the trade surplus between the two countries.

Electronic goods have now moved up to the third position among the top performers in India’s export sector, next only to engineering products and petroleum, from the sixth position last year.

Within the electronics sector, smartphone exports have recorded a 45 per cent increase in exports as leading players such as Apple and Samsung expand production in the country.

Apple’s entry into India, supported by its vendors Foxconn, Pegatron, and Tata Electronics, has boosted smartphone exports this year. Exports of consumer electronics, solar modules, desktops, and routers have also recorded significant growth.

Electronics exports are expected to further accelerate ahead as semiconductor manufacturing capacities are now being set up in the country, the official said.

India’s apparel exports have also posted a double-digit growth of 11.6 per cent to $11.31 billion during April-December of the current financial year driven by demand in leading markets such as the US, the UK, and Germany.

The Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) chairman Sudhir Sekhri said the robust growth and long-term outlook for Indian apparel exports remains positive, largely on account of improved product acceptance, adaptability to changing consumer trends, focus of factories on compliance besides industry-friendly policies of the government.

Mumbai: The Indian stock market outlook for the next week will be guided by the Union Budget, q3 results and global economic cues such as crude oil price, dollar index and US GDP growth rate data.

The Union Budget 2025 will be presented in Parliament on February 1 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

Companies like ACC, Adani Total Gas, Coal India, Piramal Enterprises, Tata Steel, Hyundai Motor India, JSW Energy, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Auto will present their third-quarter results of FY25 in the next week.

Last week, the Indian equity market continued its downward trajectory, grappling with persistent technical and fundamental headwinds. Both Nifty and Sensex closed with a decline of 0.5 per cent respectively. This was the third consecutive week when the stock market witnessed a sell-off. The Nifty Realty index fell the most by 9 per cent. However, the Nifty IT index saw a rise of about 3.5 per cent.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 22,504 crore in the cash segment. The FIIs outflows exceeded Rs 69,000 crore so far this month.

Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) stepped in with strong net inflows of Rs 17,577 crore during this period.

Puneet Singhania, director at Master Trust Group said, “Nifty trades below critical support levels, including the horizontal zone and ascending trendline, as well as the 21 EMA (exponential moving average), 55-week EMA, and the 200-day EMA, confirming a downtrend. The resistance zone at 23,350-23,450 continues to cap any upward momentum, signalling strong selling pressure.”

Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, said, “Bank Nifty remains a weak segment, trading in a narrow range of 47,800-49,800. A breakout above the psychological level of 50,000 is needed for a significant recovery, with 50,800 and 51,500 as subsequent targets. On the downside, if it slips below 47,800, the next support levels are at 47,000 and 46,500.”

Amid the ongoing policy shuffle in the US over the Chinese app TikTok with the inauguration of Donald Trump as the new President, several users have been unable to install the app on their iPhones. This has led to an increase in demand for phones with the app installed with sellers listing ads for the devices for thousands of dollars.

The temporary ban on the app on January 19 and the subsequent lifting of the ban has led to a TikTok frenzy in the USA, as content creators and influencers are ready to pay exorbitant prices for the iPhones that have the short-video platform installed.

TikTok went dark on January 18 at midnight, though only for 12 hours. It was later granted a 75-day reprieve by President Trump to resolve its issues and continue operating in the US temporarily. The administration has given the app’s owners this window to negotiate the sale of its US operations, with tech mogul Elon Musk emerging as a leading contender for its acquisition.

TikTok unavailable to install in US

TikTok, reportedly used by 170 million Americans, was unavailable for download on both Android and iPhones on January 19.

When the app was inaccessible during the initial ban, several ‘TikTokers’ or TikTok influencers attempted to reinstall it, hoping that it would resolve the issue. They were stunned to realize that it was unavailable to download, despite the 75-day relief.

“If you already have these apps installed on your device, they will remain on your device. But they can’t be redownloaded if deleted or restored if you move to a new device,” a statement from the iPhone manufacturer cautioned American users. A similar situation remained for Android users in the country as well.

Used iphone with TikTok for Rs….

In desperation to access the app and revive their accounts, several users began quoting prices they were ready to pay for an iPhone that had access to TikTok.

This led to the phone’s price in the second-hand market skyrocketing, with an asking price of up to USD 5 million, close to Rs 43 crore, on some ads. Though it seems like a very unrealistic ask, there are more ‘reasonably’ priced postings with an asking price in the ballpark of a few thousand Dollars, ranging from USD 800-USD 1,00,000.

Mumbai: Kotak Mahindra Bank on Thursday said it has completed the acquisition of the personal loan portfolio of Standard Chartered India for Rs 3,330 crore.

The acquisition, which received the necessary regulatory approvals, will help Kotak strengthen its position in the retail credit market, Kotak Mahindra Bank said in an exchange filing.

The bank said the high-quality loan portfolio will enhance its presence in the affluent customer segment and further solidify its leadership in retail lending.

According to the exchange filing, “we refer to our intimations dated October 18, 2024 and November 27, 2024 in relation to the proposed acquisition by the Bank of the Personal Loan book of Standard Chartered Bank, India, as stated therein”.

“In this regard, we now wish to inform you that, after having received the necessary regulatory approvals and upon fulfillment of the relevant conditions precedent, the Bank has, today, i.e., on January 23, 2025, completed the aforesaid acquisition,” the bank further said.

This is the first major acquisition under Ashok Vaswani, who took charge as the Managing Girector and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank on January 1 this year.

Kotak Mahindra Bank is expecting to align the acquisition to its strategy to drive growth, expand market share and unlock opportunities in the ‘Salaried Affluent’ segment.

Earlier, under Uday Kotak’s leadership, the bank had explored the possibility of acquiring Citibank India’s consumer business, which included its credit card portfolio. However, Axis Bank eventually acquired the business.

For the quarter that ended December 2024, Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a 16 per cent year-on-year increase in advances, reaching Rs 4.33 lakh crore.

The share of unsecured retail advances, including microcredit, fell to 10.5 per cent of net advances from 11.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

Davos: Any further sanctions against Russia will not have any impact on India’s crude oil requirements and the global prices should remain stable in the USD 75-80 per barrel range, as all sanction fears have already been factored in, Indian Oil Chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney said on Thursday.

Speaking to PTI here during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, he also said there are several energy sources that can be tapped to meet India’s energy requirements in case of any eventuality.

Asked about the Indian participation at Davos, Sahney said it feels great to see India with a big presence here.

“It helps as so many global corporates we can meet here at a single place. We can exchange ideas with all of them, and that’s good for the company and economy as a whole,” he added.

On Donald Trump’s second US presidency and its impact on India, he said it should be positive for the energy sector because “he has emphasised that we have to produce more energy and we are not averse to more energy sources. It is always better to have more and more energy sources”.

India imports nearly 87 per cent of crude oil, and if the country gets more than one source, it would be better, he said.

On fears that Trump can impose more sanctions on Russia if the war doesn’t stop, he said it would not have any major impact.

“Before the Ukraine war started, India used to get less than 2 per cent oil from Russia. After the war started and Russia was not allowed to sell to Europe etc, we started getting more from Russia.

“If that goes down due to sanctions, we have other sources to compensate for that. We have not left our other sources, whether they are in the Gulf, OPEC, OPEC-plus, the US, Guyana or Brazil,” he added.

Also, he said, there are new non-OPEC countries, and there is no dearth of crude oil.

“What price we will get, what would be quantity and how the transportation will happen, we will look into all of that, but I can assure you that there won’t be any impact on availability or the energy security of the country,” the IOC chief said.

On what impact it can have on global crude prices, Sahney said there should not be much effect on global prices.

When the sanctions were first imposed, the prices had gone up to USD 83 per barrel, but it has come down slowly in the last 5-7 days, and now, it is around USD 79, he explained.

“All the concerns were already factored in…and my personal assessment is that it will be in the range of USD 75-80,” he said.

On budget expectations, he said the support needed from the government for the energy sector is already there, and there is no further specific demand as of now. “Whatever specific support we need, we are already getting, and we do not think there would be anything negative for us in the budget,” he noted.

Mumbai: Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Friday, extending gains to day three this week, as Nifty Bank, auto, FMCG and IT sectors led the morning trade.

In early trade, Nifty rose 0.31 per cent to 23,277, while the 30-stock Sensex advanced 0.31 per cent to 76,765. Seven out of the 12 sectors on the NSE advanced, with Nifty Metal and Nifty Oil and Gas gaining the most.

The broader markets underperformed its larger peers, with the BSE MidCap slipping by 0.12 per cent and the SmallCap falling by 0.20 per cent.

ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys and PowerGrid contributed to the advance on the Nifty 50.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Maruti Suzuki, and Kotak Mahindra Bank weighed on the benchmark index.

According to market experts, the strength of the US market with S&P 500 setting yet another record high and the 10-year US bond yield remaining strong around 4.65 per cent will continue to weigh on the Indian market.

The Q3 results of IT companies and the management commentary indicating improving prospects for the sector suggest that the sector is a safe bet now, they added.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Oil and Gas was the top gainer, rising by 1 per cent, followed by Nifty Metal and Realty, which were up 0.9 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively. Nifty Pharma was the top loser, declining by 1.6 per cent.

According to market experts, after a positive opening, Nifty can find support at 23,100 followed by 23,000 and 22,800. On the higher side, 23,300 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 23,400 and 23,500.

The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on the 15th consecutive day as they sold equities worth Rs 5,462.52 crore on January 23. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 3,712 crore on the same day.

Given the prevailing volatility, traders are advised to exercise caution, implement strict stop-loss strategies, and avoid carrying long positions overnight unless the Nifty index sustains above the 23,500 mark to effectively manage risk, said Hardik Matalia from Choice Broking.

Meanwhile, the rupee opened 14 paise higher at 86.33 per dollar on Friday.

New Delhi: Enhanced coal availability and business expansion are fuelling the growth of Adani Power Ltd, according to brokerage firm Ventura, which has given its stock a target price of Rs 806 in the next 24 months, which is a upside potential of 54.5 per cent.

The power demand in India is surging, driven by rising manufacturing activities and the growing adoption of white goods and gadgets in households.

With renewable energy unable to fully meet the rising energy needs, the widening peak demand-supply gap underscores the necessity of augmenting base load thermal power capacity, according to the note by Ventura.

Adani Power, India’s largest private pure-play thermal power producer, is strategically positioned with robust capacity expansion plans to address this critical demand.

“We recommend BUY with an upward revised DCF-based price target of Rs 806 (13.8X FY27 EV/EBITDA), representing an upside of 54.5 per cent,” the brokerage said.

The stock is currently trading at around Rs 522 apiece.

With an installed capacity of 17.55 GW, Adani Power Ltd (APL) is India’s largest private coal-based thermal power producer. The company sources coal from both domestic and international markets.

Rising power demand supported by lower imported coal prices and improved domestic coal availability has substantially improved APL’s average plant load factor (PLF), which has risen from 48 per cent in FY23 to 72 per cent in H1 FY25 – marking its highest level in seven years.

“This remarkable progress has exceeded our previous estimates and strengthened the company’s revenue performance and operational profitability,” Ventura noted.

In FY24, APL achieved YoY growth in revenue and EBITDA of 29.9 per cent to Rs 50,351 crore and 81 per cent to Rs 18,181 crore, respectively. Similarly, in H1 FY25, revenue and EBITDA recorded a strong YoY growth rate of 17.9 per cent and 32.1 per cent, respectively.

Adani Power is committed to future growth through continued investments in thermal power capacity, targeting a total capacity of 30.67 GW by FY31. This is expected to increase the company’s share in India’s thermal power sector from 6 per cent in FY24 to 11 per cent by FY31.

As a result, over FY24-27E, APL’s revenue and EBITDA are expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.8 per cent and 11 per cent, to reach Rs 70,284 crore and Rs 24,864 crore, respectively, according to the note.

“During H1 FY25, APL has showcased remarkable business performance, driven by its strong fundamentals and standalone operational capabilities,” it added.

New Delhi: The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) ratio of Indian banks may decline by another 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent by March 2025 followed by a further 0.2 per cent dip in the next financial year, according to rating agency Fitch.

Although the stress in retail loans is rising, particularly in unsecured credit, robust growth, recoveries and write-offs are expected to offset the increase in non-performing loans, the Fitch report said.

It pointed out that currently, lending stress appears to be concentrated in smaller unsecured personal loans of less than $600 (over Rs 51,000). Besides, the exposure of large Indian banks to such riskier loans may be proportionally lower than that of the overall financial system.

Such risky loans are extended more by Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) and fintechs to low-income borrowers.

The RBI expects the impaired-loan ratio to trough in the Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25) before rising to around 3 per cent in FY26, from the 2.6 per cent reported in the first half of FY25 (1HFY25).

“We believe the difference from our forecast partly reflects variance of opinions on the timing and extent of risk crystallisation, banks’ exposure at risk, loan growth and India’s economic performance,” the Fitch report explained.

Unsecured personal loans and credit card borrowing grew at a compound annual growth rate of 22 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively, in the three years to FY24. The pace slowed to 11 per cent and 18 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, in the first half ended September 2024 (1HFY25), following an increase in risk weights attached to unsecured lending.

India’s household debt at 42.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) as of June 2024 is low compared to many emerging markets in Asia Pacific. However, the stress in unsecured retail loans is rising, making up roughly 52 per cent of new bad retail loans in 1HFY25.

The report also mentioned that banks may have some indirect exposure through funding to non-banks and fintechs, which are more exposed to low-income borrowers. Such borrowers, or those without income disclosure, constitute slightly over one-third of the outstanding consumer credit in the financial system.