Your cheat sheet to Congress’ budget fight

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The House is under pressure.

This week, Republican leaders hope that the House approves the budget framework that passed the Senate over the weekend. Nothing less than President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda hinges on it.

But the House GOP has struggled with the votes, though Speaker Mike Johnson is determined to get this done. A House vote on the Senate budget could come as soon as Wednesday, or whenever the speaker thinks the proposal has enough support.

We compiled this short cheat sheet to what the Senate bill covers and why it’s prompting disagreements among Republicans in Congress.

The basics

Watch the segment in the player above.

So let’s take a look at what’s in the Senate plan. (Read the 70-page proposal here.)

• This would put the entire Trump agenda — tax cuts and border security spending — into one bill.
• An extension of expiring tax cuts. The Senate would allow up to $5.3 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade. This would extend the 2017 tax cuts that Trump signed into law during his first term.
• This includes another $500 million for border security, detaining migrants and national defense.
• This budget framework would raise the national debt by $5 trillion dollars. The nation’s debt now stands at $36 trillion and continues to climb.

Here is where the Senate plan takes some unconventional turns.

• The Senate plan calls for a minimum of $4 billion in spending cuts from Senate committees. That is a relatively low number and would not force much in the way of decreases that conservatives want.
• At the same time, it instructs House committees to find $2 trillion in cuts, the amount the House originally passed. That includes the $880 billion in cuts from the House committee overseeing Medicaid.
• So what is going on here? This is essentially a policy punt.
• If this budget resolution passes the House, then both chambers would need to write the actual legislation laying out the tax cuts and Trump agenda. The amount of actual cuts would be determined then.
• Both Republican-controlled chambers will need to compromise. BUT House Republicans fear the Senate has an advantage in that negotiation — and that ultimately the Senate’s version, with much more red ink likely, will prevail.

Will this pass the House?

• Unclear. My reporting is that there are still more than a dozen unhappy House Republicans.
• Trump had a message to any holdouts at a Tuesday fundraiser: “Close your eyes and get there.”
• This could still easily go a few ways. The Senate plan could pass the House in the next two days, end up in conference, or end up in limbo ahead of a two-week recess for Easter and Passover.
• That last option seems the least likely because there is real pressure to answer to constituents over recess.

What is clear is that Republicans don’t have the votes yet. Trump will attempt to turn that around, but from this distance it is not clear how, or when, this ends.