Charles Kupchan:
You know, I agree with David that, everything else being equal, you stop the killing now and then you talk about the peace terms after the bloodshed has ceased.
I’m guessing that Trump asked for that in Alaska, because that was the deal that was struck in conversations with European allies before Trump went out to meet Putin. And Putin probably said no out of hand. And that’s because he thinks that he has maximum leverage while he is still killing Ukrainians.
And if he stops, then the pressure is off Zelenskyy, and he’s less likely to get a good deal. And then on the security guarantees, it is really in some ways the most ambiguous part of this deal. And I do think that there’s some tension here, right?
You have in President Trump, in Vice President J.D. Vance individuals that have been on record saying, I don’t want to send any more weapons to Ukraine. I don’t want to offer NATO membership to Ukraine. But they’re still talking about something that would be Article 5-like. That’s pretty close to a treaty ratified, guarantee the security of Ukraine.
And so I think there’s a big discussion that needs to happen inside the Trump administration about precisely what it is prepared to do to grant security guarantees to Ukraine, and, importantly, what the Europeans are prepared to do, because, there, there is actually talk about a coalition of the willing that would put boots on the ground to serve as a deterrent force against a restart of this war by Russia.
Russia is still saying, hey, we don’t want any foreign troops and particularly NATO troops on the ground, so a lot, a lot of hard conversations ahead if we’re going to see this dialogue go forward.
