Justin Wolfers:
No.
And, unfortunately, we have the White House chaos to blame for this. Look, here’s the theory. You try and make it more attractive for companies to build their factories in the United States, rather than elsewhere. That’s — so far, that makes sense. Here’s the problem. When I go to build a factory today, that factory’s not going to be complete for another three, four or five years.
And then that factory’s going to exist for several decades after that. That means my decision about whether to build in the United States has nothing to do with tomorrow’s tariffs, but rather has everything to do with my expectations of tariffs in five years’ time and through the decades after that.
The problem is, this is a chaotic White House. When they announce tariffs on Wednesday, you’re not sure they’re still going to be there on Thursday. No one in the business community feels confident that they know the status of tariffs next week, next year, let alone what really matters, which is next decade.
As a result, we’re going to get all the costs of the tariffs, but none of those benefits.
