The market snapped its two week winning streak as the Nifty and the Sensex were down just about a percent but the midcap part of the market has held up rather well this week. In other words we can say a lull before the storm as there was no major news this week and we believe that the market is waiting for some trigger to either go up or down. Earnings and the US-India trade deal is something that will be interesting to watch.
Last week we saw markets witnessing huge gains amidst positive global cues with Nifty rising above 25500 mark to 9-month high, after some hard couple of months but the bulls have managed to prevail. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a sharp 20% drop in crude oil prices from $81/bbl to $67/bbl, and Dollar Index falling to below 97 mark led to this positive momentum.
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Currently we have seen some bit of profit booking across board and that is evident with the kind of run we have seen close to 3000 points in the last four series. We have come across many articles stating that the Nifty will reach all time highs, and we have been saying since long that markets will surprise on the upside. Looking at the levels, 25200 is seen as an immediate support and we believe it will first have to cross 25800 levels to reach new highs.
Interestingly, the last time Nifty gained for more than four series in a row was back in May 2017. Each time we’ve had four strong months, the next series has usually seen a bit of a pause or correction. So the big question now is — will July break the trend?
Looking at history: In the past 10 years, July has been negative only once, in 2019. So the Nifty has a 90% chance of closing positive in July. The Nifty Bank has about a 70% chance of ending higher, with typical returns between 2.5% and 3.5%. This means one of the streaks will break; either the Nifty will gain for a fifth straight month and hit new highs, or July will turn negative.
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Any which ways it is not about nifty but more about picking right themes and stocks for the remainder of the year having earnings potential and that is where we think real returns will be made. We continue to remain positive on domestic themes that are less impacted from global uncertainty. With this let me present to you our weekly portfolio review.
How Did the Markets Fare Last Week?
On a weekly basis ended on Friday, the Indian benchmark indices ended in red. Sensex and Nifty were down 0.7% while Midcaps outperformed and were up 0.6% during the week.
What Might Keep the Markets Busy Into the Next Week?
As we kickstart Q1FY26 earnings, investors focus will turn towards the quarterly business update shared by India Inc and of course the earnings as it will set the stage for the earnings visibility in the coming quarters. Importantly post results earnings call will be important to track as it will give further directions.
Another key important event that the world will be watching is President Trump’s comment on Tariffs as 8th July is the last date the 90-day pause announced earlier. What will be the latest tariffs, will the deadline be extended and updates on trade negotiations will be very critical and it will impact not just our domestic markets but global markets as well. Apart from this release of FOMC minutes, Initial Jobless Claims and Fed’s Musalem speech will also keep markets busy.
Crude and FII Flows
Brent Crude Oil Prices Crude trades around $68/bbl as concern of rising geo-political tension after Iran officially suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA. On the other hand, FIIs turned Net Sellers for the week.
Sector in Focus
PSU Bank, Metal & Pharma remained in focus during the week.
Stocks That Remained in Focus During The Week
Bank of Baroda:
The Bank reported 10.7% YoY growth in global business to Rs 26.4 lakh crore in Q1FY26. Global deposits rose 9.1% to Rs 14.4 lakh crore, and global advances increased 12.6% to Rs 12.1 lakh crore. Domestic advances and deposits grew by 12.5% and 8.1%, respectively.
Tata Power:
Tata Power Renewable Energy one of India’s largest renewable energy Company and a subsidiary of The Tata Power has commissioned 752 MW of renewable Solar projects in Q1FY26, a record quarterly addition, up 112% from 354 MW in Q1FY25.
Bajaj Finance:
For the quarter ended 30th June 2025, customer franchise grew to 106.51 million, adding 4.69 million in Q1FY26. New loans booked rose 23% YoY to 13.49 million. AUM increased by 25% YoY to Rs 4.41 lakh crore, with a Rs 24,750 crore addition in Q1. Deposits grew 15% YoY to Rs 72,100 crore.
PC Jeweller:
The Company delivered a strong performance in Q1FY26, with standalone revenue growing ~80% YoY despite gold price volatility, driven by festive and wedding-related demand. It reduced outstanding debt by ~7.5% during the quarter, after cutting over 50% in FY25, aiming to be debt-free by FY26-end. Operational improvements continue to reflect positively in financials, and the company remains optimistic about future performance.
Marico:
The company reported strong consolidated revenue growth in the low twenties YoY, driven by improving rural demand, steady urban sentiment, and robust volume growth in core and new businesses. International business grew in the high teens, led by Bangladesh. Despite input cost pressures, Marico has maintained brand investments and expects gross margin recovery in H2FY26, aiming for sustainable, volume-led growth.
DMart:
The company has shared business updates for Q1FY26 wherein the standalone revenue from operations stood at Rs 15,932.12 crore, reflecting a growth of 16% on a YoY basis. The standalone revenue for Q1FY25 was at Rs 13,711.87 crore. The total number of shares for the quarter stood at 424 including one store at Sanpada, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra currently closed because of renovation work.
Nestle:
Nestle has announced that a new Maggi Noodles production line has been added at the Sanand Factory, Gujarat. The company currently has a capacity of 1,00,700 tons per annum with 77% capacity utilization. The proposed capacity addition is 20,300 tons per annum. For this the company will invest Rs 105 crore through internal accruals.
Paras Defence:
Paras Anti Drone Technologies Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of Paras Defence announced that France-based CERBAIR, a leading European counter-UAV company, is intending to acquire up to 30 CHIMERA 200 systems designed as primary defence against drone and swarm drone threats. The deal worth approximately Rs 22 crore by Paras, strengthens India’s position as an emerging and reliable exporter of sophisticated defence technologies.
Asian Paints:
India’s competition regulator Competition Commission of India (CCI) launched a formal abuse of dominance investigation into Asian Paints following a complaint from Birla Opus Paints, a unit of Birla Group. CCI found preliminary evidence indicating that Asian Paints violated antitrust rules. According to the complainant, Asian Paints as the market leader tried to stifle new entrants and suppress competition in the paints market.
HCL Tech:
HCL Tech announced a multi-year strategic collaboration with OpenAI, a leading AI research and deployment company, to drive large-scale enterprise AI transformation as one of the first strategic services partners to OpenAI. This collaboration will enable HCL Tech’s clients to leverage OpenAI’s industry-leading AI products portfolio alongside HCL Tech’s foundational and applied AI offerings for rapid and scaled GenAI deployment.
