Amy Walter:
Right. Right, this far away from the 2026 midterm elections, you have to be careful not to read too much on it, especially the topics and the issues that folks are talking about today are unlikely to be the topics we’re going to be talking about in November.
One thing, though, that is going to be really important is to look at turnout. Now, what we have known in this Trump era is that in lower turnout elections, which a state Supreme Court race in April normally is, Democrats tend to have an advantage now. And that is because the Democratic base voter tends to be older, they tend to be higher educated, more affluent.
Those are voters who show up in election after election. Trump’s core base are people that don’t always show up in off-year elections. They show up in presidential elections. So this is a really big test to see if the Trump coalition is actually going to turn out.
And Elon Musk is spending a lot of money doing just that, arguing that they can actually get those people who normally aren’t paying much attention to politics without Donald Trump off of the couch and into the voting place.
