The Myanmar civil war situation is a major cause of worry for both Bangladesh and India, with Dhaka expressing concern over the pouring of Rohingya Muslim refugees in the country, while New Delhi fears the development may affect the affect the security of India’s northeastern states.
Myanmar civil war: In a major development in the Myanmar civil war, the Arakan Army (AA) — the country’s main rebel group– has captured most of the key Rakhine province, handing a heavy defeat to the ruling militant junta, and giving the rebels control over the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
The Myanmar civil war situation is a major cause of worry for both Bangladesh and India, with Dhaka expressing concern over the pouring of Rohingya Muslim refugees in the country, while New Delhi fears the development may affect the affect the security of India’s northeastern states.
According to reports, the Arakan Army has dealt significant blows to Myanmar’s military regime, capturing dozens of towns and army posts in the last 15 months. Last month, the rebel fighters seized control of the BGP5 barracks, an important and strategic army base located near the Rohingya-dominated Bangladesh border in Rakhine State.
Rohingya exodus
The Rohingya Muslims, who were persecuted by Myanmar’s junta army, having been fleeing to neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh and India, since 2017 when the Myanmar Army launched a brutal campaign on Rohingya Muslims. Hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas have since fled Myanmar and sought refuge in India, Bangladesh and other neighbouring countries.
Experts say the situation may get worse as Rohingyas face similar treatment from rebel groups as they do from the Myanmar Army, and the capture of more areas by rebels would result in a surge in the exodus of these persecuted people, increasing the refugee burden on neighbouring countries, especially the border states in these nations.
Northeast insurgency and drug trade
The growing dominance of rebel groups in Myanmar is a major concern for India as the state of affairs could directly affect the security situation in India’s northeastern states, especially in ethnic violence riddled Manipur, which has been battling a civil war-like situation since May 2023.
As per experts, the influx of Christian and Buddhist refugees from Myanmar in the last 20 months has complicated the situation in Manipur, and fanned insurgency in the northeastern region. They believe that China could use the Myanmar civil war and the political turmoil in Bangladesh to stir unrest in India’s northeast border states.
India is also concerned that militant groups in the northeast could easily procure modern weaponry and military supplies through the rebel groups in Myanmar. Another major concern is the growing cross-border drug trade in the northeast, which is believed to be carried out by the Myanmar rebels to raise funds.
Additionally, India is also worried about its Kaladan Multi-Modal Trade and Transit Project (KMTTP), the main port of the project is located in Sittwe which can only be reached via the rebel-controlled Rakhine.
As per reports, New Delhi has opened diplomatic channel to engage in talks with both Myanmar’s military junta and rebel groups.
“In the last few months, India has started engaging with rebel groups in the border areas. The main objective of these talks is to protect India’s strategic interest by ensuring security in the northeast. However, New Delhi must make extra efforts to boost its rapport with the Arakan Army,” said Chhavi Vashishth, a senior research associate at Chintan Research Foundation.
