Pre-Planned Regime Change Moves Fuel West Asia Power Shift

New Delhi: Diplomats and strategic thinkers believe the recent US-Israel strikes on Iran over the day were pre-planned between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu well in advance. The buildup of the US armada in the Persian Gulf in late January has suggested a threat towards Iran, but what changed the calculus was the shifting of the USS Gerald Ford into Mediterranean waters.

 Former diplomat and West Asian expert Talmiz Ahmad pointed out that the dramatic shift of the US aircraft carrier “signalled that there was going to be an attack on Iran, and the aircraft carrier was there to protect Israel from a counterattack.”

 “Regime change has always been on Trump’s mind,” Ambassador Ahmad told the Free Press Journal. “Israel was able to pull the US into the attack on Iran by talking about regime change, not the nuclear issue. Because on the nuclear issue, US intelligence had consistently told Donald Trump that there was no nuclear program.”

Iran experts also say the idea of regime change is particularly attractive to Trump, as it would make him the president who got rid of the Islamic regime. Barring negotiations for the JCPOA, the US and Iran have had hostile relations, with many presidents making it clear that they would want to topple the regime.

 However, Iranian proxies and the pressure from Gulf allies worried about a wider war in West Asia ensured the US has not advanced on this front. Diplomats believe that this time round, weakened Iranian proxies and the eruption of protests in Iran in December last year made up Trump’s mind that the regime could be weakened through strikes and then overthrown by its own people.

 Iran expert Trita Parsi does not believe that it will be that easy. Parsi, who is the Executive Vice-President of the Quincy Institute for Statecraft, believes the cornered Iranian regime is likely to fight and says they believe they could even survive this conflict. “They calculate that they can survive war (particularly if there are no US troops on the ground), whereas surrender would obliterate their remaining support base within Iran,” he said, adding that the regime has no other choice.

“Their constituency has shrunk significantly over the years, and as a result, the remaining supporters – who tend to be more radical and hardline – have become all the more important to the regime’s survival. They cannot afford to lose them. If they surrender, they will lose them. If there is war, they keep them, and they believe they will keep their power as well, even though the country will suffer in an unprecedented way.”

 Ambassador Ahmad agrees with this assessment but believes that if one goes by history, this is unlikely to deter the Americans. “(Former Iraqi foreign minister) Tariq Aziz had a conversation with then US Secretary of State Jim Baker on the eve of the Iraq war and managed to convince him that Iraq had no WMD,” he said. “This made no difference to the American calculus as they went in anyway. The invasion served only one purpose – it emasculated a nation that the Israelis have thought of as an enemy. The same plan is at play here with Iran.”

Unlike Iraq, the Western gameplan for Iran is less clear. While the US-led alliance was determined to stabilise Iraq post the invasion, there seems to be no such plan for Iran. Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son, has put himself forward, but most experts agree that he is unlikely to be accepted by the Iranian people and therefore there seem no plans post the Islamic regime’s downfall. But that does not seem to be the problem for the West as commentators say the US has one agenda – to establish Israel as the region’s hegemon.

“Every country in West Asia has to be demolished as a power center. So if you see Israelis today on top, it is because they demolished Iraq, they demolished Syria, and they are demolishing Iran now,” Ambassador Ahmad said, adding that Israel is already looking to its next target. “(Former Israeli prime minister) Naftali Bennett stated in a speech in February that Turkey was the new emerging security threat to Israel. That is where they will look to next.”