Poll: Voters favor Democrats by double digits if midterms were today

Riding a wave of recent election victories, Democrats have another reason to hope for a repeat performance in next year’s elections. According to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, a majority of voters say they would rather elect a Democratic candidate if the midterms were held today.

Meanwhile, there are several warning signs for Republicans looking to make up ground before Americans cast their ballots next year.

The poll found that if registered voters were choosing today, 55% would elect a Democratic candidate to represent them in Congress, while 41% would vote for a Republican. The 14-point advantage is the largest since November 2017, a year before Democrats won more than 40 seats in the House of Representatives during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Independent voters in the latest poll said they would select a Democrat over a Republican by a 2-to-1 margin.

A majority of voters say they would rather elect a Democratic candidate if the midterms were held today, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll. Graphic by Dan Cooney/PBS News.

As the party out of power in Washington, Democrats are seen as “the other guy,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. That means voters are more likely to want to give them a chance to govern in the midterm elections.

High-profile election wins for Democrats in New York, New Jersey and Virginia also had “consequences in invigorating Democrats” and potentially dampening Republican enthusiasm, said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. She pointed to Trump’s sagging popularity and economic frustrations for waning Republican support, particularly among independents.

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The winning Democratic candidates this year largely centered their campaigns on the rising cost of living in their cities and states. Since the election, the president and his administration have begun to address affordability issues more explicitly, including reversing course on some tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods, in a tacit acknowledgment that grocery prices are worrying for consumers.

“The Biden administration started the affordability crisis, and my administration is ending it,” he told a group of McDonald’s franchise owners on Monday.

Given a list of issues, a majority of Americans (57%) think lowering prices should be the top priority of the White House right now. Majorities of Democrats and independents, as well as a plurality of Republicans, held that view, Graphic by Steff Staples/PBS News.

Given a list of issues, a majority of Americans (57%) think lowering prices should be the top priority of the White House right now. Majorities of Democrats and independents, as well as a plurality of Republicans, held that view in the latest poll. Controlling immigration, a major focus of Trump’s second term, came a distant second in the public’s list of presidential priorities — 41 points behind No. 1.

The Trump administration has been “out of step with where the public is” on issues of affordability, Miringoff said. The president’s focus has been on other issues including reducing crime, ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza and eliminating drug trafficking from Latin America, Miringoff added, “but they don’t resonate” with voters.

That has led, in part, to a drop in Trump’s approval rating since reentering the White House. Thirty-nine percent of poll respondents approve of the job he is doing. Another 56% disapprove of his job performance so far, including 48% who strongly disapprove.

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His job approval has dropped a few points since reentering White House to the lowest of his second term. It is also the lowest since the waning weeks of his first term, after a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to overturn the 2020 election results.

“He’s lost some of the groups that he had put together to win last year,” Miringoff said. Voting blocs that Trump made gains with in the 2024 election, including young voters and independents, “have now reverted to where they were before the campaign.”

President Donald Trump’s job approval has dropped a few points since reentering White House to the lowest of his second term. Thirty-nine percent of poll respondents approve of the job he is doing. Another 56% disapprove of his job performance so far, including 48% who strongly disapprove. Graphic by Steff Staples/PBS News.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 10 to 13 as Congress reached a deal to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. As government reopens, paychecks begin to be delivered to federal workers and air travel returns to normal, 6 in 10 Americans say either Trump or congressional Republicans are to blame for the shutdown. Another 39% lay the blame on Democrats in Congress.

After the 43-day stalemate, 1 in 5 Americans has confidence in Congress. It’s part of an overall distrust in American government and institutions captured by this poll. The presidency, Supreme Court and media are also underwater with the public. Sixty-one percent lack confidence in the presidency; 62% in the justices and 75% in the media.

That negative sentiment extends to the two major political parties as well, with 65% lacking confidence in the Republican Party and 71% saying the same of Democrats. While Democrats garner less confidence overall, that is driven in part by 43% of their own party lacking confidence.

Despite that frustration, which recently played out in public intraparty disputes over whether to end the government shutdown, Democrats still have the advantage in the binary choice ahead of the midterm elections.

Bleak opinions of the Democratic Party are “not preventing voters from preferring a Democratic Congress,” Walter said.

Still, everyone in power has reason to worry, Miringoff said. “This is also an anti-incumbent message.”

As Washington grows more polarized and political fights more heated, voters’ frustrations with government extends to the ways Republicans and Democrats view members of the opposite political parties.

Sixty-five percent of Democrats say Republicans are mostly dishonest, and 85% say Republicans are closed-minded. Seventy-two percent of Republicans say Democrats are dishonest, and 82% say Democrats are closed-minded.

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With Republicans controlling government in Washington, independent voters are more likely to side with Democrats on these measures of trust. Half of independents say Democrats are mostly open-minded while nearly a third say the same about Republicans. Half of independents also say Republicans are mostly dishonest while about a third say the same about Democrats.

This fracturing of trust and the political disagreements exposed are likely to deepen as the country prepares to enter a divisive midterm election year.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey from Nov. 10 through Nov. 13, 2025, that polled 1,443 U.S. adults by phone, text and online with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and 1,291 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for Democrats sampled is 5.3 percentage points and for both Republicans and independents is 5.6 percentage points.