Text by Zeev (Vladimir) Khanin, International expert of the BESA Center (The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Trump’s first weeks in office clearly show what his foreign policy priorities are: the key focus is on the Middle East, with a particular emphasis on the situation in Gaza. Trump has been dedicating significant time to addressing the crisis, actively engaging in efforts to secure the release of Israeli hostages. His administration’s involvement suggests a strong commitment to resolving the issue through diplomatic and strategic means, and Trump has already established contacts with key Middle Eastern leaders, including the President of Egypt and the King of Jordan.
Trump’s primary grand strategy, which he has a personal interest in—particularly in securing a Nobel Peace Prize—is the expansion of the Abraham Accords between Israel and Muslim countries, the first part of which was signed on September 15, 2020. His administration views this initiative as a key diplomatic achievement, aiming to broaden the agreements to include new countries. Israeli sources have mentioned that up to 14 nations could potentially join, highlighting the far-reaching impact of this effort.
The potential expansion of the Accords includes nations from Africa and the Arab world, starting from Saudi Arabia and up to Indonesia—the largest Muslim-majority country—which would represent a major diplomatic milestone in Southeast Asia. Integrating such a diverse set of partners would strengthen both economic and political ties between Israel and the wider Muslim world, aligning with Trump’s goal of reshaping regional dynamics and cementing his legacy in international diplomacy.
But it would be very narrow-minded to consider that Trump is just aiming to install peace between Israel and Muslims. His plans are much wider and bolder than before: Trump wishes to integrate his Abraham Accords vision with the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC. This counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative is impossible without peaceful resolution in the Middle East, and there are analysts who consider the October 7th war in Israel and Gaza a dire attempt to derail this plan by its opponents.
The 5 thousand kilometers long IMEC will include a rail link, as well as an electricity cable, a hydrogen pipeline, and a high-speed data cable. One of the IMEC’s significant contributions could be reducing the global economy’s reliance on critical maritime chokepoints like the Suez Canal. The corridor proposes an alternative route that could reduce congestion and greatly improve trade resilience for India.
This means that India has a very valid reason to support not only Trump’s Middle East plan, but also the expansion of the Abraham Accords on the wider scale of geopolitics. In this connection, it is important to pay attention to the concepts recently pitched up by the pro-republican media and economic outlets in the US, which analyze the global dynamics on Trump’s agenda. Since November last year, one of the recurring themes is adding Azerbaijan—a Southern Caucasian republic, strategically situated between Russia and Iran. This oil- and gas-rich secular country with a Muslim Shia majority is widely praised for being one of the pillars of Israel’s regional security system. It is also one of the chain links of the Middle Corridor (TITR)—a trade route from Southeast Asia to Europe, through Central Asian states.
Forbes magazine has dedicated an article to the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance and Chinese encroachment in the Caucasus, calling on the new White House administration to take action: “The U.S. must leverage other relationships within the Middle East to secure stable energy supply chains. For example, Israel and Azerbaijan have a strategic partnership that influences regional dynamics… Ensuring continued American support for both Azerbaijan and Israel is in America’s interests. China has recognized this. Today, Azerbaijan is being tempted by Chinese incentives, namely long-term high-price oil contracts and easy access to China’s vast market. Unfortunately, Western mistakes are pushing Baku in the wrong direction. Azerbaijan, frustrated by delays in exporting energy to the West, is now considering looking to the East. No surprises there”.
“As a reliable ally, Baku has played a major role in ensuring Israel’s energy security, bolstering mutual interests, and offering a model of Judeo-Muslim collaboration that transcends prevailing geopolitical divisions. This is something the new U.S. administration should factor into its foreign policy in its endeavor to engender enhanced stability across the globe,” stated popular US right-wing outlet Newsmax.
A reputable Townhall magazine directly called Trump to invite Azerbaijan to the Abraham Accords for its pro-Israeli stance.
And according to the Atlantic Council think tank, Washington could start by expanding the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan and arranging an Abraham Accords conference in Baku, where it will be announced that Central Asian countries will be next to join. “Should the United States take the same approach as Israel and deepen its diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Azerbaijan, it may reap similar geopolitical rewards,” the paper notes.
Text by Zeev (Vladimir) Khanin, International expert of the BESA Center (The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
