Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led central government has lifted the ban on India rice export, which has increased the pressure on other rice-exporting nations, including China and Pakistan.
India rice export: In a major move that has shaken the global rice market, Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led central government has lifted the ban on rice exports, which has increased the pressure on other rice-exporting nations. The decision comes amid India’s push to to boosts its agricultural exports, and is aimed at increasing the income of farmers as over 42% of the country’s 1.4 billion population is dependent on agriculture.
According to reports, Modi govt’s move has softened the prices of rice in the international market, with the price of white rice from Thailand falling to $405 per tonne, compared $669 in January 2024. India aims to export agricultural and food products worth $100 billion by 2030, which double of the $48.15 billion figure recorded in 2023-24, according to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.
“Last year, India exported agricultural goods worth about $50 billion. But, we have set our sights on crossing $100 billion mark by 2030,” said Goyal, adding that the government has also eased restrictions on sugar exports.
Pakistan has suffered losses
Meanwhile, India’s move to lift restrictions on rice exports has hurt cash-strapped Pakistan, which had captured markets in countries like Indonesia and East Africa after India ceased exports. According to Ibrahim Shafiq, export director at Lahore-based Latif Rice Mills, prices of non-basmati rice from Pakistan fell from $ 850 per tonne to $ 650 per tonne, almost overnight after India lifted ban on its rice exports in September last year.
“As soon as India returned to the market, the African and Indonesian markets returned to cheap Indian rice. This has caused loss to Pakistan’s revenue from rice exports compared to previous years,” he revealed.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates that Pakistan will export 58 lakh tonnes of rice by May 2025, a decline of 11.4% compared to last year.
India will regain the market
India’s triumphant return to the rice market is poised to stir a major upheaval in markets which had been captured by other rice exporters as they are likely to once again prefer Indian rice due to cheaper price. “When India withdrew from the market, countries like Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand captured some of the market. But, after India’s return, they won’t be able to compete. India will get these markets back and will push everyone else out,” said Bengaluru-based economist Samarendu Mohanty.
According to analysts, an increase in India’s exports will result in cheaper rice to African countries, while East Asian animal feed and ethanol producers will also benefit from the move.
Africa is considered a major market for broken rice, which constituted more than 80% of India’s rice exports during 2018-20, according to data from the International Food Policy Research Institute. In 2022, Indian rice accounted for more than 60% of rice imports to 17 African countries and more than 80% of nine countries, including Somalia.
Why India restricted rice exports?
India imposed restrictions on the export of rice after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February 2022, fearing that the staple may face shortages due to rising prices. Following India’s rice ban, many Asian and North American countries began to buy rice in bulk, which led to the highest price of Asian benchmark rice since 2008.
However, the Modi government started easing export restrictions in September last year.
According to S&P Global, India exported 14 million tonnes of rice in 2023, and is expected to export a record 21.5 million tonnes between September 2024 and October 2025.
“If India exports more than 20 million tonnes of rice in the global market of 54-55 million tonnes, it will flood the market,” said Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist at the Indian Council of International Economic Relations Research.
