Jennifer Kavanagh:
Well, first of all, Ukraine’s biggest problem right now is not shortage of weapons, but a shortage of manpower. They simply don’t have enough personnel to man their front lines and they’re suffering very high to desertion rates, which is understandable, given that their soldiers have been fighting now for over three years, some of them without a break.
So more weapons isn’t going to be the solution to Ukraine’s real problem here. Thinking about Putin’s calculus, Putin in his call with Trump today made it clear that he has a set of goals that he aims to achieve, and he will push until he achieves those goals, almost regardless of what the West does.
So this isn’t going to change his calculus either. As far as how the rest of the world interprets the U.S. decision, I’m sure Beijing and Iran and other U.S. adversaries would love to see the United States continue to send its valuable and precious munitions to Ukraine, because it means that there’s fewer that the United States can use in conflicts in those regions.
If anything, the number one U.S. adversary, China, should — would see this as a sign of resolve, that the United States is finally doing what it said it’s going to do for the past over 10 years of beginning to prioritize and conserve its military resources to focus on the Asian theater.
