US President Donald Trump has been on an unhinged rant through his social media and official announcements yesterday on July 30, he announced 25% tariff on India and an alleged penalty for continuing to import Russian oil. In a subsequent post, Trump went ahead to claim that Pakistan has oil reserves. He suggested that the USA is working on a deal to develop those all resource and maybe one day India will have to buy Pakistani oil.

Realistic as it may sound, the US president has been displaying a Bazaar proclivity to issue loudmouth boost self praise wrapped with a rather evident desire to be called the great leader of the world. The peacemaker. Facts do not align with what he’s trying to project.

First, let’s examine the claims of ‘massive oil reserves in Pakistan’.

Claims Vs reality of Pakistan’s ‘oil reserves’

Pakistan’s proven crude reserves are estimated at around 540 million barrels, primarily in onshore fields like the Potwar Plateau and Lower Sindh. That is rather modest, nowhere near ‘massive’. For a general comparison, Saudi Arabia has 260 billion barrels and Iraq has an estimated 140 billion barrels. 

Some seismic surveys on the offshore Indus Basin, suggest significant hydrocarbon potential, with some estimates claiming up to 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent in untapped resources, especially near the Murray Ridge.

However, those ‘estimates’ are technically not ‘reserves’. There is no commercial viability as of now. No recoverability estimates have been done, no plans exist as of yet for ‘development’. 

In the past, some exploration was done. The Kekra-1 well yielded no results.

In June 2023, Shell sold off its stake in the Pakistan business to Saudi Aramco. In the same year, an auction call for 18 oil and gas blocks saw no bidders.

The Balochistan question

Pakistan is a failed state. Economically, demographically, geopolitically and almost in every other parameter. It has an $126 billion external debt and $17.5 billion energy import bill limit. Unless the US bankrolls the entire operation, that too on a whim and dream, provided that ever happens, Pakistan lacks the means to fund large-scale exploration, infrastructure, such as pipelines and refineries. 

The much-touted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, with billions of dollars and years spent, has made no difference to Pakistan’s economy yet. Moreover, owing to the instability and security challenges in Pakistan’s North-West, West, and that big, 347,190 square kilometers of territorial bomb called ‘Balochistan’, which makes 44% of what Trump and Pakistan’s government are still assuming as Pakistan, will not allow any more foreign powers to take control and exploit its natural wealth, not without considerable violence. 

If Donald Trump, witnessing firsthand how the US fared in Afghanistan, thinks he will just swoop in and ‘develop’ oil wells in the offshore Indus basin and Baloch rebels will sit by and watch, he is either day dreaming, or taking his own citizens for a ride. 

Trump’s sudden Pakistan romance, and the Brahmos strikes by India 

India hit Pakistan’s military bases like playing ‘Call of Duty’ during the Operation Sindoor. The Nur Khan airbase, which is close to Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, it’s nuclear command arm, and less than 10 km from Pakistan’s military headquarters, was hit by the Brahmos missile. Later, reports emerged that the Nur Khan base was under US control, and there was not much clarity on what US had there. 

India’s precision strikes during Operation Sindoor were more than unprecedented; they not only rendered Pakistan’s ‘China-made’ air defence completely useless, and dug craters on their runways, they imposed heavy military damage and destroyed a significant chunk of Pakistan’s military assets, not limited to multiple fighter jets, the Saab 2000 AEW&C aircraft and the Erieye radar systems.

Donald Trump was unhinged before, but something seems to have snapped in him after Operation Sindoor. First came the baseless, almost compulsive claims of having negotiated a truce by using trade as a leverage. But literally nobody is buying that. Because, for starters, he has no trade deal to show, and India demonstrated its military capability to the whole world. Nobody with an ounce of brain is ever going to believe that India just meekly ‘obeyed’ Trump after destroying Pakistan’s bases, and blowing up their military assets at will.

NDTV’s Vishnu Som joked if the Brahmos that India used to dig a crater at the Rahim Yar Khan base ‘found oil’.

With Trump’s disturbed, bizarre rants that are rather unusual for a world leader, even when he is Donald Trump, Indian Twitter is now rife with speculations whether the rattled, berserk reactions are a result of India’s unexpected, spectacular strikes on Pakistan during the Operation Sindoor.

Conclusion

Trump has been making loud promises, boastful claims, ‘Trump-eting’ his imaginary glories and peddling grandiose visions of MAGA to a world that is very well aware of the new multipolarity, especially in the Global South. Trump’s threats have not deterred China, Russia, and they won’t deter India either. 

India is new to neither threats, nor sanctions. It has seen far worse and has emerged as a rapidly growing, the world’s fourth biggest economy, while maneuvering a complex world. 

Haters may call it a joke, but maybe the Brahmos missiles indeed made craters so deep that Pakistanis and their new daddy Donald Trump have found oil.

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