Lisa Desjardins:
This is very close, Amna. By my count, they really are close to that three Republican vote limit that they can afford to lose on this bill.
So let’s look specifically at what we know. First of all, there are two no-votes, people who have said they are hard no’s on this. That’s Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who just announced this weekend he is retiring.
Now, in addition to that, I count at least seven votes to watch, in addition, who seem squeamish about the bill or have major problems with it, some from the right and some from the center. One of those especially to watch is Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. There was a provision in this bill, Amna, that was going to save Alaska from some of those Medicaid cuts, but it was dropped over the weekend by the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling.
So it’s not clear what will happen. It’s significant because outside groups are targeting Alaska, running ads like this one against Senator Dan Sullivan right now, saying that this will be bad for the state. Now, he disagrees with that, but the point is that they really don’t have the votes to spare.
And by my count, Amna, right now, this is headed through a tie vote in the Senate, and the vice president would break that tie. The House, the future there much harder to see until we know what happens in the Senate.
