WASHINGTON – Candidates for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat will face their first real test Tuesday as both Republican and Democrats vying to represent the state in the U.S. Senate fight for support in their party caucuses.
The gathering of Minnesotan party faithful in school auditoriums and other locations continues a civic tradition that marks the official kickoff of campaign season.
Those who attend those precinct caucuses will choose delegates – and alternates – to DFL and GOP organizing conventions and is the first step in a process that will culminate in the endorsement of candidates, any rule changes and the creation of party platforms.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Angie Craig, D-2nd District, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are fiercely competing for support.
Flanagan said her campaign began last year to woo the 1,200 or so party volunteers who attend the caucuses. She continued with 38-city “Loud and Clear Voice” tour, named in homage to her Ojibwe name, which is “speaks with a loud and clear voice woman.”
“This is about Minnesotans raising their hands to be part of the process,” Flanagan said.
Meanwhile, Craig said her campaign will be present at about 80% of the caucuses on Tuesday to do some last-minute politicking.
Unlike a primary election, which is run by the state, caucuses are meetings organized and conducted by the political parties themselves.
Most of the DFLers who will attend this year’s caucuses have done so before, though about 25% of them will be newcomers. But none of them have gathered in a time of turmoil like this, with the Trump administration targeting Minnesota in a series of ways, including an immigration crackdown that has cost the lives of two Minnesotans, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, at the hands of federal agents.
In fact, the enforcement action called Operation Metro Surge has hijacked a Senate campaign that on the Democratic side was going to be all about “affordability” and the rising cost of health care, which both Flanagan and Craig blame on President Donald Trump’s policies.
The campaign may revert to those issues. But at the Democratic caucuses, immigration and the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and the Border Patrol in the state will be top of mind.
There’s also concern Operation Metro Surge will disrupt caucus operations.
The DFL said it has a plan for that eventuality. It has secured access to “constitutional observers,” Minnesotans who track and document ICE and Border Patrol activities, to respond to any activity and set up a hotline for on-site legal support in “high-need precincts.”
Also, those who want to be DFL delegates do not have to attend a caucus gathering. “Non-attendee” forms are available in English, Somali, Spanish and Hmong to be nominated as a delegate or alternate.
Democratic delegates elected Tuesday will attend DFL organizing unit conventions in early spring, then each congressional district will hold another convention to endorse candidates for the U.S. House. The process culminates in a state convention at the end of May in Rochester where the favored candidate for the U.S. Senate will be chosen.
Republican delegates chosen Tuesday will also attend organizing conventions where delegates will be chosen to the GOP state convention, which will be held in Duluth at the end of May.
The chosen delegates won’t just be part of a winnowing process of delegates and alternates leading to the state conventions. They will maintain contact lists, hold strategy meetings and help with campaigns. They can also seek to make changes to their party’s platform.
More progressive and angry
DFL caucus goers always lean to the left of the party, but this year they will “be much more progressive and much more angry,” predicted Tim Lindberg, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota Morris.
Craig has shifted to the left from the centrist stance that helped her win reelection in her “purple” congressional district.
Yet Flanagan has been excoriating Craig for her vote on the first bill the GOP-controlled House held last year.
Related: Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan flex their political muscles in race for U.S. Senate seat
Craig was one of 46 Democrats who crossed party lines to vote for the Laken Riley Act, legislation named after a nursing student in Georgia who was murdered by an undocumented immigrant.
That legislation, which has become law, expanded the crimes that would make a non-citizen deportable to include theft, burglary, larceny and shoplifting. Those non-citizens could be deported simply for being charged with a crime, denying them the chance to argue their innocence in court.
“It’s a whole lot easier now to lock people up without due process,” said Flanagan. She said Craig should apologize for her support of the legislation.
Craig said Flanagan is “conflating” things.
“Laken Riley has nothing to do with what is going on in Minnesota today,” Craig said.
And Craig said that has become personal because her brother-in-law, who is Latino, was surrounded by federal agents with their guns drawn when he recently visited a gasoline station in the state.
The lawmaker was also among the first to co-sign a bill that seeks the impeachment of Homeland Security Department Secretary Kristi Noem and is vocal about her opposition to additional funding for ICE and the Border Patrol and her support for reforms of those agencies.
“I’m glad she wants to impeach Noem. I would too,” said Flanagan.
She agreed that Operation Metro Surge has cast a shadow on the caucuses. But she said that shadow has darkened the whole state.
“I wish that I didn’t have to deliver food to people, that kids didn’t have to be walked to school, that two people were assassinated, and that people didn’t have to march in negative 15-degree temperatures,” Flanagan said.
A first time for Tafoya
Craig, a master fundraiser, has outpaced Flanagan when it comes to campaign money. But both hold huge advantages right now over the Republicans running for Smith’s seat.
According to the latest Federal Election Commission reports, Craig’s campaign has raised nearly $6.8 million while Flanagan’s campaign had raised nearly $3.3 million as of Dec. 31.
Flanagan brushed off the fundraising difference.
“I’m competitive,” she said. “And I’m the only candidate in the race who is not taking corporate political action committee (PAC) money,” she said. “The race should not go to the highest bidder.”
Related: From the NFL sidelines to a US Senate race: Michele Tafoya’s new play
Both the Craig and Flanagan campaigns have spent heavily, even as it’s still comparatively early in the race. According to the FEC filings, Craig’s campaign has spent about $2.9 million and Flanagan’s has spent about $2.5 million.
On the Republican side, the person who is expected to be the top money raiser, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, was not in the race until last month and did not raise any campaign money last year.
So former NBA player Royce White is the top fundraising Republican in the race, having secured about $700,000 for his campaign as of Dec. 31.
Adam Schwarze, a Marine Corps veteran, raised $60,000 and Navy veteran Tom Weiler has raised a little more than $82,000.
Lindberg said those who attend the Republican caucuses may split their support among the candidates, who appeal to different wings of the GOP.
“They have a big fight on their hands,” Lindberg said of the GOP and the Senate race. “But right now the party does not seem to be organized.”
He also said the GOP precinct caucuses may result in no clear frontrunner.
Two years ago, White, who was accused of making antisemitic remarks and misusing campaign funds, won the Republican nomination to run against Sen. Amy Klobuchar after ultraconservative delegates rejected Joe Fraser, a more moderate and mainstream Republican.
But this will be the first time GOP activists weigh in on Tafoya, who has never run for political office.
While the precinct caucuses are one step toward party endorsements, those, while impactful, do not decide who the party’s nominee will be for a given office. That will be decided in August’s primary election.
And, Lindberg said, the results of the caucuses may not mean much since many non-endorsed candidates, including Gov. Tim Walz and Rep. Michele Fischbach, R-7th District, ignored that slight and went on to win primary and general elections.
Craig could be in the same position.
Even if she fails to win more support than Flanagan on Tuesday and fails to win her party’s nomination at May’s state convention, Craig is determined to stay in the race and compete in the Democratic primary.
“At the end of the day, this process won’t be fully decided until August,” Craig said. “My view of the world is that every voter in the state of Minnesota should get to decide who should be the next governor.”
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