The initial negative market reaction to Budget 2026 is expected to fade as investors focus on strong economic fundamentals. |
Mumbai: On many occasions in the past the stock market had responded negatively in a knee jerk reaction to the Budget, only to recover once the real content of the Budget is digested. The immediate market reaction to the 2026 Budget was negative since the Budget didn’t offer any tax reliefs, which a section of the market was expecting. Worse, the FM increased STT on F&O trades spooking the market. However, soon the market will realize that the growth orientation of the Budget will be a big long-term positive for the market. Once this realization sinks in, the market will recover.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaraman presented her record ninth consecutive Budget in the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions in a turbulent world. Despite the headwinds from Trump tariffs and a fractured global trade system, the finance minister had the advantage of a robust Indian economy clocking the fastest growth rate among the large economies of the world. The average annual GDP growth during FY22 to 26, factoring-in the estimated 7.4 percent GDP growth for FY26, is an impressive 8.1 percent, assisted, of course, by the low base of the Covid year FY20-21. Inflation, fiscal deficit and current account deficit are under control. Even though the US-India trade deal is still hanging fire, the mega India – EU trade deal has come as a shot in the arm for the economy.
Despite these tailwinds, the pressure points in the economy like sustained portfolio outflows (USD 18 billion in 2025), steadily depreciating rupee, poor FDI and absence of any significant private capex have been acting as headwinds constraining sustained growth. The task before the finance minister was to address these challenges and facilitate sustained growth of the economy. It goes to the credit of the FM that she has risen to the occasion and presented a growth-oriented, fiscally prudent Budget.
Long-term vision of growth with fiscal discipline
This Budget reflects a long-term vision of growth-orientation with fiscal prudence. The FM has delivered what the economy needs, at this juncture. The Indian economy is doing well despite many headwinds like the Trump tariffs. The 7.4 percent GDP growth rate for FY26 makes India the fastest growing large economy in the world, for the fourth year in a row. The challenge is to sustain this growth rate even in the midst of geopolitical tensions in a fractured global order. For FY27, the 7 percent growth rate target can be achieved. It is important that this growth is achieved through fiscal prudence. So, what the economy wanted was a growth-oriented Budget with fiscal prudence and, this is exactly what the FM has delivered. With 7 percent GDP growth and around 3.5 percent inflation, nominal GDP growth of around 10 percent for FY27 is achievable and this would be a significant improvement over the 8.1 percent nominal GDP growth in FY26. More importantly, from the market perspective, this is good news because 10 percent nominal GDP growth has the potential to deliver 15 percent earnings growth in FY27 triggering a modest rally in the market, after the initial negative reaction, which is unlikely to last beyond a couple of days.
Fiscal consolidation glide path intact
The government has stuck to the fiscal consolidation glide path by achieving a fiscal deficit target of 4.4 percent of the GDP for FY26 and targeting 4.3 percent fiscal deficit for FY27. The debt to GDP ratio is targeted at 55.6 percent for FY27. There is no compromise on fiscal discipline. Growth orientation with fiscal discipline is the hallmark of this Budget.
STT on F&O trade spooks the market
A Budget proposal that spooked the market was the decision to raise the STT (Securities Transactions Tax) on F&O: STT on futures was raised from 0.02 percent to 0.05 percent, while STT on options premium was raised from 0.10 percent to 0.15 percent. It is important to understand that this is not a revenue raising measure, but a decision to discourage retail traders, 92 percent of whom were losing money in F&O trades, from trading in the F&O market. This is a welcome move, though sentimentally negative in the short run. On the other hand, the decision to treat share buybacks as capital gains, treating all shareholders alike and imposing additional tax on promoters for buybacks, is a welcome move from retail investors perspective. This will discourage improper use of buybacks by promoters.
Gold and silver crash may bring investors back to the equity market
Investors can remain invested and continue systematic investment. A major development, beside the Budget, is the crash in gold and silver prices. The speculative boom in the precious metals has been busted, at least for the near-term, and this has the potential to bring investors back into the equity markets.
The market will respond to improving fundamentals
After the initial disappointment relating to unrealistic expectations of tax reliefs die down, the market will start responding to fundamentals. If FII selling drags the market further down in the near-term, the domestic consumption driven largecaps will become attractive buys from the fundamental perspective. DIIs will turn buyers in these segments imparting resilience to the market. There are pockets of overvaluation in mid and small caps and, therefore, investors should be choosey in these broader market segments opting for fairly valued growth stocks. In brief, like the Government, investors should take a long-term view and remain invested ignoring the short-term gyrations of the market.
(Contributed By Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments)
