Where Congress stands on the DHS funding fight

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Forming throughout the political zeitgeist is a big, thick bubble of a question: Is this a turning point in Trump 2.0?

The killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis as he was pinned down and shot by federal officers has sparked anger and dominated political thought since it happened Saturday.

WATCH: Minneapolis residents remain skeptical after immigration enforcement leadership change

The idea of a “turning point” in public and political opinion about Trump is as new as the idea that Trump tells different people different things on different days.

We don’t know where things will stand a week (or really a day) from now. But let’s look at what congressional actions — largely by Democrats — are in the conversation.

1. A partial shutdown looms

Watch the segment in the player above.

No one has worked harder to get Congress functioning recently than appropriators. They managed to work across the aisle and agree on compromise bills for every agency. And all of those have passed the House.

But. One final group of funding bills still needs to pass the Senate. And in that group is the funding for the Department of Homeland Security. The plan was to pass them this week.

But. To get over the Senate’s 60-vote procedural hurdle, the bills need seven Democrats to vote yes.

And now, Senate Democrats are nearly united, with the exception of Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, in saying they will not support a DHS funding bill, or any attached to it, without reforms to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The Senate has two options. Republicans can allow the DHS funding to be separated out, clearing the path for the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services and others to be funded.

Or, Republicans can insist the bills stay together, strongly risking that Democrats will block them and trigger a shutdown of those agencies.

There is something different about this. Republicans are open to ICE reforms, with some of them openly criticizing the state of affairs in how the immigration crackdown has been deployed. The question is both what to pass and how to get it passed. And, there is little time. A partial shutdown would begin Saturday.

One note: ICE is the department least likely to be affected by a shutdown. In Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Republicans gave ICE a surge of $75 billion dollars. That’s enough to operate for years without more funding from Congress.

When will we know? In the next day or two. The funding deadline is Friday. But any deal to avoid a shutdown needs to emerge before then.

2. Impeach DHS Secretary Kristi Noem?

Any member of the House of Representatives can introduce and force a vote on impeachment of a Cabinet official or president at any time.

Earlier this month, Illinois Democratic Rep. Robin Kelly introduced impeachment articles against Noem, but did not force a vote. The idea was debated and controversial with some in the Democratic Caucus at that point.

And now, following Pretti’s killing, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is pushing for Noem to resign or, he says, Democrats will push impeachment.

Impeachment requires a majority vote in the House. (It is two-thirds to convict in the Senate.)

Currently, the House is 218 Republicans to 214 Democrats. But another Democrat should be elected next week in a Texas special election. When that person is installed, it will be 218 to 215.

If every Democrat voted to impeach Noem (not guaranteed), two Republicans would need to join them to impeach her.

Here, too, is something different. Already two Republican senators have said that Noem should go. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., slammed Noem to reporters Tuesday. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, was more tactful, saying, “I think it is probably time for her to step down.”

Trump mocked both senators in a phone interview with ABC. But the potential damage here is real. Having high-ranking members of your party say a key Cabinet official should go is rare and a problem for Republicans.

Now, are there enough votes to remove Noem in the Senate? No.

But pressure is mounting on Trump to remove her before an impeachment happens. So far, he is resisting. (Remember: He dug in and managed to get both Secretaries Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. confirmed despite hurricane-force winds against them.)

3. Possibly a separate bill about ICE

In general, Republicans want neither impeachment or a partial shutdown.

On the Hill, several of them – including Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Katie Britt, R-Ala. – are working behind the scenes to try to come up with a Plan C.

What is Plan C? Separate legislation to rein in or express boundaries for ICE.

Initially, Republicans offered the idea that Trump could issue clear executive orders to address concerns. But after talking with a range of sources, it is clear Democrats will not trust the White House to act.

But if there is separate legislation, what could be in it that would both address Democratic concerns and also win over enough House Republicans to pass there?

This is a tough needle to thread. But it may be the one to watch.

Unfortunately, needle threading often takes time. And time is running out.

Friday feels far away in terms of weather shifts. A snowstorm could come. Or melt.

But in terms of Congress, it is nearly upon us.