Hurricane Melissa is nearing landfall in Jamaica after strengthening to a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 175 mph. Authorities have already started mandatory evacuations across the island and have opened more than 800 emergency shelters. To discuss what Jamaica can expect in the hours ahead, Geoff Bennett spoke with Matthew Cappucci, senior meteorologist at My Radar.
Geoff Bennett :
Hurricane Melissa is making its way to Jamaica tonight after strengthening to a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 175 miles per hour. Authorities have already started mandatory evacuations across the island as they move to close the nation’s airports. Officials have also opened more than 800 emergency shelters.
The storm has already caused extensive damage, as its outer bands have already dropped heavy rain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. And now it’s heading west towards Jamaica overnight and Cuba on Wednesday. So far, it’s claimed three lives in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.
For more on what the island nation can expect in the hours ahead, we’re joined by Matthew Cappucci, senior meteorologist at MyRadar.
Thanks for being back with us.
Matthew Cappucci, Senior Meteorologist, MyRadar:
Good to be here.
Geoff Bennett :
So, as I understand it, you flew into the eye of this hurricane last night in a hurricane Hunter plane. What did you observe about this storm that people should know?
Matthew Cappucci:
Yes, about a week ago, I was trying to figure out my coverage plans in terms of, would I be going to Jamaica? Would I be chasing it elsewhere? And we decided the safest option would be to basically attack it from the air.
I reached out to a NOAA P.R., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and arranged to get myself a seat on this flight into the eye of Melissa. And for folks to understand, hurricanes are sort of like atmospheric sink drains. All the air rushes into the eye wall, that buzz saw a ring of winds around the center. And all the air spirals inwards and upwards.
But then it basically punches into the ceiling of the lower atmosphere, and kind of curves back down, and hollows out the eye with hot, dry, sinking air. And so as we were flying into the hurricane, the turbulence obviously very extreme, it was like being on Space Mountain at Disney World or a roller coaster in the dark, jostling to and fro, up and down, you name it.
And that lasted about 10 minutes. And then, suddenly, we were in the oasis of calm, this incredibly calm, picturesque eye. I could see something called the stadium effect. Basically, I’m in this zone of calm, but all around me, I can see 50,000 foot thunderclouds swirling around in the eye wall with 150-plus-mile-per-hour winds.
And yet, even just for about 90 seconds where I was, it was perfectly still. It was super warm too, because the eye was 16 degrees warmer inside than outside. So I actually began sweating a little bit. It was breathtakingly beautiful and calm and peaceful, and yet also horrifying, knowing that, all around me, that hellacious buzz saw wind was heading for Jamaica.
Geoff Bennett :
Well, what does this mean for Jamaica when Melissa hits?
Matthew Cappucci:
This will be an unprecedented event in Jamaica.
The last even comparable event was back on September 12, 1988, when Gilbert hit as a high end Category 3. But it’s important people understand that a Category 5 is exponentially stronger, probably an order of magnitude stronger than a Category 3. Category 3 might cause some structural damage.
Category 5 leads to destruction of entire neighborhoods and isolation of entire communities. It’s a multifaceted threat too. Far inland, you’re talking three, maybe 3.5 feet of rain. That will cause widespread flooding and mudslides that will wipe out roads and leave communities unreachable perhaps for weeks until roads and bridges can be rebuilt.
At the coastline, where that buzz saw wind comes ashore, a 40-mile-wide swathe of winds gusting upwards of 140, 150 miles per hour will cause tornado-like damage. Even if any structures survive, the landscape will be altered. Trees, native trees, will be decimated, forests will be wiped bare. Only just shredded vegetation will be left standing.
It’ll take years for the landscape to heal. That wind will also push water against the coastline, leading to a potentially devastating storm surge of two to four meters, up to about 13 feet. Imagine the ocean just rising to the height of a two floor building.
All this together will tax Jamaica to its limit and potentially lead to a humanitarian crisis that could last for a very long time.
Geoff Bennett :
Is Melissa’s trajectory or strength expected to change as it heads toward Jamaica?
Matthew Cappucci:
It really would take a miracle for Jamaica to avert crisis at this point.
We’re pretty confident in where Melissa’s going. It’s been trending a little farther west than initially anticipated, which might, emphasis on might, be good news for Kingston, but bad news for areas on the southwestern side of the island.
At this point, though, we’re very confident this eye wall, the buzz saw of winds will lift directly across Jamaica. And it might be a high-end Category 4 or a low-end Category 5 at landfall. It really doesn’t matter which. It’s going to cause extreme destruction, to the point the National Hurricane Center is using phrasing like total structural failure.
That’s the severity of this. They tend to be pretty taciturn, pretty reserved in how they use their language. When they break out phrasing like that, you know it’s the real deal.
Geoff Bennett :
Lots of folks hoping for a miracle tonight in Jamaica.
Matthew Cappucci, senior meteorologist at MyRadar, thanks again for being with us.
Matthew Cappucci:
Thank you.
