On 2nd October, Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, accused his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orban, of ‘financing’ Russian war against Ukraine. Orban, however, did not hold back and said that while Tusk wants Hungary to side with Ukraine, he wants an end to the war.

Taking to X, the Polish Prime Minister wrote, “Prime Minister @PM_ViktorOrban, it is Russia who started the war against Ukraine. It is them who decided we’re living in the time of war. And in such a time the only question is whose side are you on.”

In response, Prime Minister of Hungary wrote, “Dear Prime Minister @donaldtusk, Russia is at war. Ukraine is at war. Hungary is not. I understand that you stand firmly on the side of Ukraine. Please understand that we stand firmly on the side of Hungary. Your question is who will win the Russia–Ukraine war. My question is how we can end the war, save tens of thousands of lives and provide security for Hungarians. You seek to win a war you believe is yours. I want to ensure that peace prevails.”

Polish PM claims Russia’s victory would threaten security of Poland and Europe, Hungarian PM calls it Tusk’s “dangerous game”

The Polish and Hungarian Prime Ministers have in the recent times been continuously exchanging diplomatic blows. Earlier, Viktor Orban accused the Polish PM of “playing a dangerous game” with the lives of millions of Europeans.

While the feud between Hungary and Poland has spilled over into scathing exchanges on X, the spat began on 29th September when, Polish PM Donald Tusk, speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, declared the Ukraine war as “our war”. He stressed that Russia’s victory in the ongoing war ‘threaten’ Poland, Europe and the world, inflicting consequences for future generations.

PM Tusk framed the Russia-Ukraine war as a direct security issue for NATO allies. The Polish Prime Minister urged unified European support for Ukraine and tougher measures against Russia.

He called Russian war against Ukraine, a recurring global projected intended for “enslaving nations, robbing individuals of freedom, and enabling the triumph of authoritarianism, despotism, cruelty and the erosion of human rights.”

“If we lose this war, the consequences will affect not only our generation, but also future generations—in Poland, throughout Europe, in the United States, everywhere in the world,” Tusk warned.

Donald Tusk’s rhetoric intensified on 2nd October at the European Political Community summit in Copenhagen, where the Polish PM directly confronted his Hungarian counterpart, PM Orban. Tusk accused Orban on ambiguity on whose side Hungary is on at a “time of war” started by Russia. Poland has earlier too alleged that under PM Orban, Hungary has been ‘undermining’ EU sanctions on Russia, through alleged delayed approvals, vetoes on aid packages, and continued energy purchases. Poland claims that Hungary is ‘financing’ Moscow’s ‘war machine’ at the expense of Ukraine and the European unity.

Addressing the summit in Copenhagen, PM Orban contended that the main danger to Europe was not Russia but Europe’s own economic stagnation and dwindling competitiveness.

“Economic stagnation and losing competitiveness — this is the danger,” Orban said. He added that Europe’s military spending is way higher than Moscow’s. We have more than 400 million people. Russia has 130 and something. We spend altogether, 27 countries, more on military spending than the Russians. So, why are we afraid? We are stronger than they are. The question is whether we have leadership to come together and to defend our interests together. That’s what we should do anyway,” Orban said.

He further asserted that the challenge for Europe is not Russia’s strength, but a lack of leadership and unity.

Countering Orban’s argument, the Polish PM said, “After the latest events in Poland, I mean the violation of our airspace, this is something very concrete. And the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well,” he said. “This is why the possible consequences of a Russian victory will be dramatically dangerous for Europe and for the whole West. … Yes, this is also our war. In Poland, no one has doubts on this.”

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Hungary continues to lead the EU in Russian energy imports, bringing in €416 million in August alone, which included €240 million in pipeline gas and €176 million in crude oil. In August, Hungary was Russia’s also top fossil fuels importer.

Interestingly, Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia, whose administration, like Hungary’s, has also resisted imposing further EU sanctions on Moscow and still significantly depends on Russian fossil fuels.

Since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two leaders are among the few European politicians who have remained close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Evidently, there are deep fractures within the European Union when it comes to their collective approach towards Russia. While Poland has adopted the approach of hawkish push for arming Ukraine and isolating Russia, Hungary’s approach is that of veto-prone isolationism. Hungary earlier blocked €50 billion in EU aid to Ukraine and maintained gas supply from Gazprom. Clearly, Hungary due to its landlocked geography believes that it cannot afford discontinuing Russia energy supplies, not until EU offers it an appropriate alternative. Not to forget, EU itself has not fully ditched Russia energy supplies.

However, Poland’s apprehensions rooted in historical traumas can also not be overlooked. As a frontline NATO state sharing border with Ukraine and Belarus, Poland has provided all possible support to Ukraine, perhaps, fearing that if Ukraine falls, Poland could be Russia’s next target. Moscow, however, contends that the Ukraine-Russia war had never begun had the West not decided to bring NATO on Russia’s doorsteps. Russia has always opposed Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO, saying that it threatens their sovereignty.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister of Hungary met US President Donald Trump and told him that his country needs Russian fuel to keep energy prices low. Trump also acknowledged this.

“I told the U.S. president … that if Hungary is cut off from Russian oil and natural gas, immediately, within a minute, Hungarian economic performance will drop by 4%. It means the Hungarian economy would be on its knees,” Orbán said. 

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Kremlin’s Druzhba pipeline is Hungary’s energy lifeline. While pro-Ukraine leaders and geopolitical experts argue that Hungary could diversify its energy imports through Croatia’s Adria pipeline, Hungary contends that despite having the capacity to cover supplies for not only Hungary but also Slovakia, the pipeline operates at only at 70 to 80 per cent efficiency for their requirements considering EU wants Hungary to fully replace Druzhba.

What fuelled Hungary’ scepticism is the recent failed capacity tests of Adria pipeline. If Hungary ditches a reliable Russian Druzhba for an unreliable Croation Adria, it may face several challenges. In future, if for some reason Hungary wants to resume Russian energy imports, Kremlin perhaps would not entertain them or add some ‘costs’ to it. Not only the reliability of the pipelines, but factors like price, transit fee, and refinery optimisation also come at play.

In recent times, Hungary and Croatia’s relations have also witnessed bitterness. Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian Foreign Minister, earlier claimed that Croatia’s energy infrastructure is unreliable and also accused them of profiteering from Russia-Ukraine war. Croatia, however, denies these allegations.

In August this year, Ukraine bombed the Druzhba pipeline in Russia, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia and other countries in Central Europe. The pipeline goes through Ukraine. Days before too, Ukraine had attacked the pipeline in its bid to halt Russian energy supply to Hungary and Slovakia, however, the pipeline was restored only to be attacked again by Kyiv. The US President Donald Trump had expressed anger over Kyiv’s attack.

Amusingly, all while pressuring Hungary to stop Russian energy imports, the European Commission said that the Druzhba pipeline is an important asset and should not be attacked. In no time, Russia energy supplies to Europe resumed.

Rooted in Vikto Orban’s realpolitik, Hungary, has been resisting the pressure from EU and America to ditch Russian energy. Hungary is prioritising its economic stability over Poland’s “we are next” apprehension.

However, Hungary is not the only country to have been subjected to this selective finger-wagging. The US and Europe orchestrated the Russian oil rerouting to India specifically to avert global price shock that could certainly have crippled their economies. But now, with Trump’s ego bruised over not getting credit for his fictitious role in stopping India-Pakistan conflict in May this year, war fatigue setting in and Russia not backing off, the West came together to blame India.

The Trump administration imposed 50 percent tariffs on India, unleashed his attack dogs Peter Navarro, Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessant to vilify New Delhi for buying Russian oil even as China is top buyer of Russia oil. Just as Hungary, India too was accused of ‘fuelling Russian war machine’, even as Europe’s purchase of Indian petroleum products made out of Russian crude also ‘fuels’ Putin’s war in Ukraine.

India, however, stands its ground firm and refuses to ditch Russia. New Delhi has maintained that if the West really wants India to diversify its energy imports, the US should let it resume energy ties with Iran and Venezuela. Europe and America have continued their trade with Russia, even for non-essential goods, but wants Hungary and India to stop buying Russian energy disregarding their domestic needs. This is peak hypocrisy. If ‘financing the war’ is the root of the problem, EU and America should audit their own ledgers first.

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